The U.S. skilled trades shortage is still large in 2026. The construction industry alone needs to attract an estimated 349,000 net new workers this year and 456,000 in 2027, according to Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC). Manufacturing could need as many as 3.8 million new employees between 2024 and 2033, and up to 1.9 million of those jobs could go unfilled, according to Deloitte and The Manufacturing Institute.
Federal projections point the same way. The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects about 72,700 openings for electricians every year through 2035, plus 62,800 for carpenters, 42,000 for plumbers and pipefitters and 40,600 for HVAC mechanics. Most of those openings come from workers retiring or leaving the trade, not from new jobs. Below are the latest numbers on the size of the gap, pay, age, the training pipeline and the data center build-out, with the source and date for each.
Key takeaways
- The construction industry must attract 349,000 net new workers in 2026 and 456,000 in 2027 (ABC, January 2026).
- Up to 1.9 million of the 3.8 million manufacturing jobs needed by 2033 could go unfilled (Deloitte and The Manufacturing Institute, 2024).
- Electricians have about 72,700 openings a year through 2035, and employment is projected to grow 9.2%, more than twice the 3.5% average for all jobs (BLS, August 2026).
- Electricians are the hardest craft to fill: 81% of contractors with electrician openings report difficulty (AGC and NCCER, September 2026).
- 31% of machinists and 28% of industrial machinery mechanics are 55 or older (BLS Current Population Survey, 2025 annual averages).
- 58% of contractors doing data center work say those projects increased competition for skilled workers (AGC and NCCER, 2026).
- Power-line installers earn a median $95,320, the highest of the trades in this report (BLS, May 2025 wages).
US job market this month
US employers had 7.1M job openings in August 2026 and made 5.2M hires. About 3.1M people quit their jobs, a quit rate of 1.9%. The unemployment rate was 4.2% in September 2026.
That works out to 1.01 job openings for every unemployed person in August 2026, a quick read on how hard hiring is for employers.
Job openings, hires and quits come from the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, which runs about a month behind the unemployment rate. The latest month is preliminary and BLS revises it. All figures are seasonally adjusted. Source: BLS (job openings, hires, quit rate, unemployment rate). Updates automatically each month.
How big is the skilled trades shortage in 2026?
ABC publishes a construction workforce shortage estimate every January. Its model converts expected growth in construction spending into demand for workers, at about 3,450 jobs per $1 billion of added spending, and adds job openings, unemployment and projected retirements. The 2026 estimate is 349,000 net new workers, rising to 456,000 in 2027 as spending growth is expected to resume.
The 2026 number is lower than in past years. ABC estimated 501,000 for 2024 and 439,000 for 2025. ABC chief economist Anirban Basu said the drop reflects extremely modest spending growth forecasts, and that “a majority of new worker demand in 2026 will be attributable to retirement rather than increased demand for construction services.”
Other groups measure the gap in different ways. The table below puts the main estimates side by side. The Home Builders Institute puts the yearly cost of the skilled labor shortage in home building at $10.8 billion, including 19,000 single-family homes that were not built.
| Source | Measure | Figure |
|---|---|---|
| ABC (Jan 2026) | Net new construction workers needed in 2026 | 349,000 |
| ABC (Jan 2026) | Net new construction workers needed in 2027 | 456,000 |
| Deloitte and The Manufacturing Institute (Apr 2024) | Manufacturing employees needed, 2024 to 2033 | Up to 3.8 million |
| Deloitte and The Manufacturing Institute (Apr 2024) | Manufacturing jobs that could go unfilled | Up to 1.9 million |
| Home Builders Institute (Oct 2025) | Annual cost of the home building labor shortage | $10.8 billion |
| Home Builders Institute (Oct 2025) | Single-family homes lost per year | 19,000 |
| BLS (Aug 2026) | Construction and extraction openings per year, 2025 to 2035 | 587,000 |
Which skilled trades will have the most job openings through 2035?
BLS released its 2025 to 2035 projections on August 27, 2026. Total U.S. employment is projected to grow 3.5%. Several trades are projected to grow faster: industrial machinery mechanics (+17.8%), HVAC mechanics (+10.9%), power-line installers (+10.3%) and electricians (+9.2%). The numbers below come from BLS Employment Projections Table 1.2.
Annual openings are the better measure of hiring need. They include new jobs plus openings created when workers retire or move to another occupation. That is why welders and machinists still have tens of thousands of openings a year even with slow growth.
| Occupation | Jobs, 2025 | Projected, 2035 | Change | Openings per year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Construction laborers | 1,489,300 | 1,598,600 | +7.3% | 120,000 |
| Carpenters | 889,700 | 924,700 | +3.9% | 62,800 |
| Electricians | 821,000 | 896,900 | +9.2% | 72,700 |
| Plumbers, pipefitters and steamfitters | 510,600 | 545,200 | +6.8% | 42,000 |
| Industrial machinery mechanics | 446,900 | 526,600 | +17.8% | 44,400 |
| HVAC mechanics and installers | 440,900 | 489,100 | +10.9% | 40,600 |
| Welders, cutters, solderers and brazers | 437,700 | 448,100 | +2.4% | 40,300 |
| Machinists | 288,300 | 291,200 | +1.0% | 26,100 |
| CNC tool operators | 170,000 | 154,100 | -9.4% | 12,500 |
| Electrical power-line installers and repairers | 131,900 | 145,500 | +10.3% | 10,900 |
| All occupations | 170.3 million | 176.2 million | +3.5% | 17.5 million |
How much do skilled trades workers earn?
Every trade in this report except construction laborers and CNC tool operators has a median wage above the $50,980 median for all occupations. Power-line installers lead at $95,320. Electricians, plumbers, HVAC mechanics and industrial machinery mechanics all sit between $61,000 and $65,000. These are May 2025 medians, the wage figures BLS uses in its 2025 to 2035 projections.
How old is the skilled trades workforce?
The construction trades are not older than the workforce overall. In 2025 the median construction and extraction worker was 41.0, compared with 42.1 for all employed people, according to BLS Current Population Survey Table 11b. ABC noted in 2025 that the median construction worker had become younger than 42 for the first time since 2011.
The age problem is concentrated in manufacturing maintenance and machining. Machinists have a median age of 45.7, and 31.4% are 55 or older. Industrial and refractory machinery mechanics are close behind at 45.5 and 27.7%. Those are the workers who keep production lines running, and many will retire within the next decade.
| Occupation | Employed (thousands) | Age 55+ (thousands) | Share 55+ | Median age |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Machinists | 309 | 97 | 31.4% | 45.7 |
| Industrial and refractory machinery mechanics | 329 | 91 | 27.7% | 45.5 |
| Carpenters | 1,178 | 242 | 20.5% | 41.5 |
| Welding, soldering and brazing workers | 573 | 116 | 20.2% | 39.3 |
| Electricians | 1,063 | 191 | 18.0% | 39.6 |
| Plumbers, pipefitters and steamfitters | 624 | 115 | 18.4% | 40.2 |
| HVAC mechanics and installers | 561 | 105 | 18.7% | 39.9 |
| Construction and extraction (all) | 8,490 | 1,690 | 19.9% | 41.0 |
| All employed | 163,493 | 37,979 | 23.2% | 42.1 |
Is the skilled trades pipeline growing?
There are signs of growth, but they are modest next to the openings above. In fiscal year 2025, 974,024 apprentices were served in 26,342 registered apprenticeship programs, according to the Department of Labor’s federal assistance listing for Registered Apprenticeship. That count includes everyone who took part during the year, not just those active on one day.
The trades dominate registered apprenticeship. In the most recent national occupation breakdown on DOL’s apprenticeship statistics page (fiscal year 2021), electrician was the top occupation by a wide margin, and construction was the largest industry with 197,421 active apprentices.
| Apprenticeship occupation | Active apprentices, FY2021 |
|---|---|
| Electrician | 71,812 |
| Carpenter | 29,800 |
| Plumber | 21,971 |
| Sprinkler fitter | 17,595 |
| Construction craft laborer | 15,009 |
| Sheet metal worker | 9,899 |
| Lineman | 9,166 |
| HVAC maintenance and installer | 8,050 |
| Millwright | 6,033 |
| Machinist | 1,613 |
Trade schools are growing too, though more slowly. Enrollment at public two-year colleges with a high vocational focus rose 11.7% in spring 2025 to 871,000 students, the third straight year of strong growth, according to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. Growth slowed to 2.8% (+24,000) in spring 2026, while undergraduate certificate programs grew 10.2%.
Interest from young people is high. In Thumbtack’s 2026 Future of the Skilled Trades Report, a July 2026 survey of 1,000 Americans age 16 to 30, nearly half were learning or seriously considering a skilled trade, 82% said the trades offer better long-term job security than many office jobs, and 80% believe AI will eliminate many traditional entry-level jobs. The Home Builders Institute found the share of Gen Z workers in the construction labor force more than doubled, from 6.4% in 2019 to 14.1% in 2023.
Are construction job openings rising or falling in 2026?
Construction job openings have come down from their 2022 peak but picked up again in 2026. The construction job openings rate averaged 4.9% in 2022, fell to 2.8% in 2025 and has averaged 3.0% in the first eight months of 2026. It reached 3.5% in June and July 2026 before dropping to 2.9% in August, when there were 251,000 open construction jobs, according to the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.
A lower openings rate does not mean the shortage is over. It mostly reflects weaker demand in homebuilding and some commercial segments. Contractors in growing segments such as data centers report the opposite, as the next sections show.
Which trades are hardest to hire in 2026?
Electricians top the list. In the 2026 Workforce Survey from AGC and NCCER, conducted in July and August 2026 with 1,830 respondents, 81% of firms with openings for electricians reported difficulty filling them. Mechanics (79%), HVAC technicians (77%) and concrete workers (76%) followed.
Other findings from the same survey:
- 87% of firms have openings for hourly craft workers, and 88% of those say the jobs are as hard or harder to fill than a year ago.
- 50% say available candidates lack the skills, certificates or licenses needed, down from 57% the year before.
- 42% say worker shortages have delayed projects, still the most cited cause of delays.
- 83% report at least some turnover among new field employees in their first 90 days.
- 55% raised base pay for hourly craft workers by more than they did a year earlier.
How are data centers and the power grid adding to demand for electricians?
BLS now names AI directly. Its electrician outlook cites “the increasing use of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies and demand for data centers” as a reason electricity demand will rise, along with grid upgrades and new solar and wind generation. In the 2025 to 2035 projections, utilities is the fastest growing major industry sector (+9.8%), with nearly all the growth expected in electric power generation, transmission and distribution.
Contractors are feeling it now. In the AGC and NCCER survey, 28% of respondents did data center work in the past 12 months. ABC’s Basu said “demand for electricians capable of precision wiring has surged due to the rapid increase in data center construction.” Our data center workforce shortage statistics cover the operations side of this gap.
| Effect of data center projects on contractors | Share of firms |
|---|---|
| Increased competition for skilled workers | 58% |
| Increased wage pressure | 49% |
| Made open positions harder to fill | 36% |
| Increased turnover | 30% |
Grid work is a related bottleneck. BLS projects 10% growth for electrical power-line installers and repairers through 2035, with about 10,900 openings a year and a median wage of $95,320.
What does the skilled trades gap look like in manufacturing?
Manufacturing’s shortage is about replacing experienced workers more than adding jobs. BLS projects production occupations to shrink 0.4% by 2035 as automation spreads, yet those occupations are still projected to have about 867,700 openings a year. Maintenance roles are the exception: industrial machinery mechanics are projected to grow 17.8%. Manufacturing had 522,000 job openings in August 2026, a 4.0% rate. For broader industry numbers, see our manufacturing statistics. Refineries and other process plants compete for the same mechanics, welders and electricians, as our guide to oil refinery jobs shows. The engineers who design and run these plants are hard to find as well; see our engineering shortage statistics.
| Manufacturing indicator | Figure | Source and date |
|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing employees needed, 2024 to 2033 | Up to 3.8 million | Deloitte and The Manufacturing Institute, Apr 2024 |
| Jobs that could go unfilled | Up to 1.9 million | Deloitte and The Manufacturing Institute, Apr 2024 |
| Production occupations, projected change 2025 to 2035 | -0.4% | BLS, Aug 2026 |
| Production occupations, openings per year | 867,700 | BLS, Aug 2026 |
| Industrial machinery mechanics, projected change | +17.8% | BLS, Aug 2026 |
| Manufacturing job openings, August 2026 | 522,000 (4.0% rate) | BLS JOLTS, Sep 2026 |
What do these skilled trades shortage statistics mean for employers?
- Plan for replacement, not just growth. Most trades openings through 2035 come from retirements and exits. Machinists and industrial machinery mechanics have the oldest workforces, so start succession planning there.
- Expect electricians to stay scarce. They are the hardest craft to fill, they have more annual openings than any trade in this report except construction laborers, and data center and grid projects keep adding demand.
- Budget for higher pay. More than half of contractors raised craft pay faster than the year before, and data center work adds wage pressure in many markets.
- Fix the first 90 days. With 83% of contractors seeing early turnover, clear job previews, mentors and structured onboarding protect the hires you already paid to find.
- Build your own pipeline. Apprenticeships, trade school partnerships and outreach to Gen Z career switchers take time, so start before the next big project.
Recruiter tip: When you hire maintenance technicians or electricians for a plant, write the posting around the equipment and systems the person will work on (PLCs, switchgear, chillers, CNC machines) and state the pay range. Skilled candidates compare offers on specifics, and a vague posting loses them to the employer who names the work and the wage.
Apollo Technical recruits the engineers and technical leaders who run trades-heavy operations. See our manufacturing engineering recruitment services, read how the shortage is affecting building maintenance budgets, or tell us about a role you need to fill.
Methodology and sources
We used the most recent data available as of October 13, 2026, and checked each figure against the original source. Shares of workers 55 and older and annual average job openings rates are Apollo Technical calculations from the BLS data listed. Sources:
- Associated Builders and Contractors, construction workforce shortage estimates, January 15, 2026 (with the January 2024 and January 2025 releases).
- Deloitte and The Manufacturing Institute, manufacturing workforce study, April 3, 2024.
- Home Builders Institute, Fall 2025 Construction Labor Market Report (via NAHB), October 10, 2025.
- BLS Employment Projections 2025-35, Table 1.2 and news release, August 27, 2026.
- BLS Current Population Survey, Table 11b, 2025 annual averages.
- BLS JOLTS Table 1 and FRED series JTS2300JOR, data through August 2026.
- AGC and NCCER, 2026 Workforce Survey Analysis, September 2026.
- U.S. Department of Labor, Registered Apprenticeship assistance listing (FY2025) and FY2021 national results.
- National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, spring 2025 and spring 2026 enrollment reports.
- Thumbtack, 2026 Future of the Skilled Trades Report, September 16, 2026.
